Predicting the Oscars is an art. You can’t look at the nominees and pick personal favorites. You can’t side with the movies that you think deserve to win. You have to look over those 27 categories and put yourself in the shoes of 6,000 voting members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Science and think “What are they going to vote for?”

So welcome to the second annual /Film Oscar Predictions Contest, where we put our heads together to predict the winners of the biggest movie awards show of the year. Feel free to play along.

You may remember last year’s contest, where Ethan Anderton didn’t just win – he obliterated everyone else. This year, he faces stiff competition: Peter Sciretta, Angie Han, Jacob Hall, David Chen, Jack Giroux, Devindra Hardawar, and Christopher Stipp submitted predictions this time. Some of the crew did careful homework. Others knocked out their predictions in five minutes. The winner gets bragging rights for the next year.

Here’s how it works. Each writer had 100 points per category and could split them up as they saw fit. This means a writer could put all 100 points on a single film in that category or split them up amongst several nominees to hedge their bet. If they have any points on a film that wins its category, they get those points. Simple enough, right? Whoever has the most points when the ceremony is over, wins.

But first, we have combined everyone’s numbers into one master list that reflects the site’s overall predictions. Let’s take a look at who /Film thinks will walk home with Oscar gold on Sunday.

La La Land Rehearsal

BEST PICTURE

Arrival – 50 points

Fences – 0 points

Hacksaw Ridge – 0 points

Hell or High Water – 0 points

Hidden Figures – 10 points

La La Land – 550 points

Lion – 0 points

Manchester by the Sea – 10 points

Moonlight – 180 points

With a record-tying 14 nominations, La La Land is not only the favorite to win Best Picture, it’s the favorite to win…well, just about everything. However, our staff thinks that if anyone can upset the frontrunners, it’s Moonlight.

Casey Affleck in Manchester by the Sea

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea – 620 points

Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge – 0 points

Ryan Gosling, La La Land – 120 points

Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic – 0 points

Denzel Washington, Fences – 60 points

Casey Affleck has dominated the awards season so far and our numbers reflect that accordingly. Ryan Gosling may get caught up in the La La Land train and Oscar voters sure love Denzel Washington, but this is Affleck’s to lose.

La La Land - Emma Stone

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Isabelle Huppert, Elle – 80 points

Ruth Negga, Loving – 20 points

Natalie Portman, Jackie – 0 points

Emma Stone, La La Land – 700 points

Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins – 0 points

If one of La La Land‘s two leads is going home with a trophy on Sunday, it’s going to be Emma Stone. It’s possible to imagine an Isabelle Huppert upset, but come on.

Moonlight

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Mahershala Ali, Moonlight – 720 points

Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water – 35 points

Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea – 0 points

Dev Patel, Lion – 45 points

Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals – 0 points

Out of our predictions, Mahershala Ali scored more points than anyone else. With the exception of the Golden Globes, Ali has scooped up nearly ever substantial supporting actor award over the past few months and Oscar voters will see this as an opportunity to honor Moonlight while giving everything else to La La Land.

Viola Davis - Fences

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Viola Davis, Fences – 620 points

Naomie Harris, Moonlight – 70 points

Nicole Kidman, Lion – 0 points

Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures – 10 points

Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea – 100 points

This category has been Viola Davis’ to lose ever since Fences was first announced. The only thing standing in her way are voters who think that this is “category fraud” and that Davis actually belongs in the lead actress category. But no one can argue with her actual work onscreen.

zootopia

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

Kubo and the Two Strings – 20 points

Moana – 270 points

My Life as a Zucchini – 0 points

The Red Turtle – 0 points

Zootopia – 510 points

The big question is which Disney animated film is going home with a shiny Oscar on Sunday? We’re giving the edge to Zootopia, but we left plenty of room for a Moana upset.

Emma Stone and Ryan Gosling in La La Land

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Arrival – 190 points

La La Land – 510 points

Lion – 0 points

Moonlight – 100 points

Silence – 0 points

In terms of pure beauty and excellence, every nominated film here deserves recognition. And because of that, La La Land will probably win by default because it’s going to win everything else.

top 10 movies of 2016 jackie

COSTUME DESIGN

Allied – 90 points

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them – 85 points

Florence Foster Jenkins – 15 points

Jackie – 360 points

La La Land – 160 points

What’s this? A category where La La Land isn’t going to win? Oscar voters tend to favorite historical films in this category and the stylish, period-appropriate clothing in Jackie really is a wonder to behold.

2017 PGA Awards Winners

DIRECTING

Arrival – 50 points

Hacksaw Ridge – 0 points

La La Land – 660 points

Manchester by the Sea – 0 points

Moonlight – 90 points

Get ready for your close-up, Damien Chazelle. Anyone else taking is over La La Land will be the upset of the night.

top 10 movies of 2016 oj made in america

DOCUMENTARY (FEATURE)

Fire at Sea – 0 points

I Am Not Your Negro – 45 points

Life, Animated – 50 points

O.J.: Made in America – 650 points

13th – 45 points

Last year, film critics and fans argued over whether or not the seven-hour epic O.J.: Made in America was a film or a television show. Now, it’s /Film’s favorite to win an Academy Award. Whoa.

the white helmets

DOCUMENTARY (SHORT SUBJECT)

Extremis – 250 points

4.1 Miles – 30 points

Joe’s Violin – 240 points

Watani: My Homeland – 20 points

The White Helmets – 260 points

Here’s the secret about predicting the short film categories at the Academy Awards: no one knows anything. There’s no hard favorite here and anyone claiming to know for sure is crazy.

top 10 movies of 2016 la la land

FILM EDITING

Arrival – 60 points

Hacksaw Ridge – 0 points

Hell or High Water – 0 points

La La Land – 570 points

Moonlight – 170 points

Film Editing is a category that often ends up going to Best Picture winners by default. For that reason, this one will probably end up as yet another La La Land win.

Toni Erdmann trailer

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Land of Mine – 45 points

A Man Called Ove – 60 points

The Salesman – 295 points

Tanna – 20 points

Toni Erdmann – 380 points

This is another unpredictable category, but the critically lauded Toni Erdmann squeaked ahead in our predictions. However, the politics surrounding The Salesman (and the fact that it’s also a critical favorite) make it a close runner-up.

2016 summer movie recap

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

A Man Called Ove – 233 points

Star Trek Beyond – 413 points

Suicide Squad – 154 points

This is one of the year’s weirdest categories. Because it’s impossible to imagine Suicide Squad winning an Oscar and because A Man Called Ove is one of the least-seen nominees, Star Trek Beyond‘s exceptional alien make-up designs should win the day.

Continue Reading /Film’s 2017 Oscar Predictions >>

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